Friday, November 20, 2009

National Housing Market Update

Here's an overview of recent stories about the nation's housing market.

Housing starts fell more than 10% in October, hitting a six-month low. Pundits are attributing the unexpected decline to uncertainty about the fate of the first-time homebuyer credit. The decline is troubling because housing starts historically have been a good leading indicator of overall economic activity.

The delinquency rate on residential mortgages hit a record high of almost 10% in the third quarter. That doesn't include the 4.5% of mortgages that are in foreclosure. The combined total of over 14% is also a record, going back to 1972 when the Mortgage Bankers Association initiated its delinquency survey.

The vacancy rate for apartments hit a 23-year high of 7.8% in the third quarter. The vacancy rate is expected to climb further during the fall and winter quarters, when rental demand is seasonally weak.

The unemployment rate rose to 10.2% in October, reaching double digits for the first time in 26 years. The highest rate recorded during the six decades since the government began compiling data was 10.8%, which occurred in 1982.

Despite all the bad news, existing home sales rose 9.4% in September, to a two-year high of 5.6 million units on an annualized basis. The recent strength of demand is at least partially attributable to the first-time homebuyer credit, which is scheduled to expire in the middle of 2010.

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