Bay Area Unemployment Still Rising Sharply

Unemployment in the nine-county Bay Area hit 7.3% in December. That matches the high point of the 2001 recession (which was actually reached in June of 2003). It's also the highest rate in the last 19 years, going back to 1990 (i.e., the beginning of my data series).

The national situation isn't any better. In its remarks yesterday, the Federal Reserve said that national unemployment will probably increase to 8.5%-8.8% by year end, and probably won't return to the current level (7.6% in January) until 2011.

From the looks of the chart above, I'd say we'll be doing well if we can keep unemployment from rising by more than a percentage point over the next year. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke seems to agree with that sentiment, saying that unemployment will climb to 8.0% "for sure."